THERE BE DRAGONS

In medieval times, areas known to be dangerous or uncharted were often labeled on maps with the warning: “Beware, here be dragons.” That is surely how mapmakers would be labeling the whole of Kenya today.

After the onset of the Hague trials, it was reasonable to be, at worst, agnostic and, at best, hopeful about the prospect of this country making the difficult transition from autocracy to democracy. But recently, looking honestly at the country, one has to conclude that the prospects for stable transitions from a country that reeks of executive impunity to a properly functioning democracy anytime soon are dimming. It is too early to give up hope, but it is not too early to start worrying.

Lord knows it is not because of the bravery of the PEV witnesses, and many civil societies, who set off these awakenings, in search of dignity, justice and compensation. No, it is because the staying power and mendacity of the entrenched old guards and old ideas in these countries is much deeper than most people realize and the frailty or absence of democratic institutions, traditions and examples much greater.

“There is a saying that inside every fat man is a thin man dying to get out, We also tend to believe that inside every autocracy is a democracy dying to get out, but that might not be true in Kenya.

It was true in Germany in 1989, but there are two big differences between Germany and Kenya. Germany countries had a recent liberal past to fall back on — after the artificially imposed Nazi communism were removed. And Germany also had a compelling model and magnet for free-market democracy right next door: the European Union. Kenya has neither, so when the iron lid of impunity comes off they fall back, not on liberalism, but sectarianism, tribalism or military rule.

To be sure, we have to remember how long it took America to build its own liberal political order and what freaks that has made them today. Almost four years ago, they elected a black man, whose name was Barack, whose grandfather was a Muslim, to lead them out of their worst economic crisis in a century. they’re now considering replacing him with a Mormon, and it all seems totally normal. But that normality took more than 200 years and a civil war to develop.

We in Kenya are in our first decade. You saw in 2007 how quickly the regime and dark forces turned the democracy push into a sectarian war. Remember, the civil societies and the opposition in Kenya began a largely peaceful, mass demonstration, movement for accountability and a vote recount. But it was deliberately met by security forces and tribal militia with murder and sectarian venom. They wanted to make the conflict to be about tribe A versus Tribe B as a way of discrediting the opposition and holding base.

As Headstart Africa, a think tank group on the conflicts on the horn of Africa wrote in a recent essay: “Rather than reform, the regime’s default setting has been to push society to the brink. As soon as protests started ... state media showed staged footage of  jubilant citizens celebrating as the president was hurriedly sworn in whilst the information PS declared a blanket ban on live broadcasting ... this was an attempt to erect a mini-caliphate. This manipulation of Kenyans meant the regime was confident that the threat of civil war would force citizens and outside players alike to agree on preserving the existing power structure as the only bulwark against collapse.”

You see the same kind of manipulation of emotions in our country today. Elections were bundled and citizens demonstrated peacefully. Thousands were killed and hundred thousands displaced — and not even a single government leader, even our MP’s, dared to stand up and say: “Wait, this is wrong or dared to resign or even go to the international community to petition for justice for the victims. Every week we hear of the Attorney General forming a committee to look into modalities of having the jurisprudence of the cases referred back to Kenya— and there’s barely a peep. Yet the mere confirmation of charges against the ocampo suspects sparks outbursts and killings. What does our reaction say about us?” we need to have this conversation.

The Kenyan awakening phase is over. Now we are deep into the counter-revolutionary phase, as the dead hands of the past try to strangle the future. I am ready to consider any ideas of how we can help the forces of democracy and decency win. But, ultimately, this is the citizens’ fight. We have to own it, and I just hope it doesn’t end — as it often does in the land of dragons — with extremists going all the way and the moderates just going away. We’ve won the dance now we need to win the prize…